2025 TE Class: Final Pre-Draft Grades
After Loveland and Warren, Who's Next?
The 2025 NFL Draft began last night and we some some exciting picks and trades! Before day two begins, take a look at my fourth and final edition of my Pre-Draft positional grades. Last up are the Tight Ends!
Below is an in-depth explanation of my Pre-Draft Tight End grades for the 2025 NFL Draft Class. For additional information regarding the Process’s General Overview and Model, take a look at my 2025 QB Class: Final Pre-Draft Grades post.
As a reminder, for all positions, my model is trying to predict Weighted Points per Game (wPPG) for a player’s first three years. I am choosing to use wPPG model due to how reactionary dynasty fantasy football is becoming - if a player doesn’t perform early, managers become impatient, move on, and their value decreases. My formula for wPPG is below:
wPPG = (Yr1PPG * 45%) + (Yr2PPG * 35%) + (Yr3PPG * 20%)
The Tight End Model’s Foundation
I analyzed players drafted from the 2017 to 2022 NFL Drafts. Each one of those players has had the opportunity to complete three NFL seasons. For the TEs, this resulted in a sample size of 117 players. I chose to only look back 5 five complete draft classes to ensure we are evolving with the NFL and, as I mentioned, “relevant” data sets.
Instead of forcing success based on linear improvement, I used Decision Tree Analysis to define thresholds for each input metric. A Decision Tree example was shown in 2025 QB Class: Final Pre-Draft Grades.
Key Reminders:
This decision tree approach helps us see that player success isn't always linear.
To make sure one stat doesn't overpower everything, I limit any single stat's influence to 20%.
Tiers for my model are Diamond, Platinum, Gold, Silver, and Bronze.
The real test? Using R2 to determine if my model is better at predicting than NFL Draft Capital alone.
Inputs and Results
As you will see, Age Drafted is not used for TEs like it was for the previous three positions. For TEs, I used 10 input metrics across three different categories:
Individual Performance
Best Season Yards per Route Run
Career Yards per Team Pass Attempt
Best Season PFF Rec Grade
Final Season Yards After Catch
Best Season Reception Share
Final Season Targets per Route Run
Career Reception Yards
Final Season Weighted Dominator
Athletic Measurable
Speed Score - I have found that Speed Score correlates a bit better than RAS, but both/either are VERY important for TEs
Biographic Information
Round Drafted
As previously mentioned, we will be comparing my model’s R2 for predicting wPPG to the R2 of NFL Draft Capital for predicting wPPG. R2 is measured from 0 (poor fit) to 1 (perfect fit). The goal is to beat NFL Draft Capital, not find a perfect fit. Results are below for Overall NFL Draft Selection and all of my grades (Pre-Combine, Pre-Draft, and Post-Draft)
Overall NFL Draft Selection vs Years 1-3 wPPG: .271 R2
Pre-Combine Grade vs Years 1-3 wPPG: .351 R2
Post Combine Grades vs Years 1-3 wPPG: .438 R2
Post Draft Grade vs Years 1-3 wPPG: .486 R2
In previous TE models, only my Post Draft Grades outperformed Draft Capital. I’m extremely proud that my TE model now beats out Draft Capital every step of the way.
One thing to note: the addition of Speed Score improved the model by 0.087, whereas adding draft capital improved the model by 0.048. Speed Score/RAS. As I mentioned earlier, any weight-adjusted athleticism metric MATTERS A LOT for TEs.
Like QBs, TEs only fall into four tiers.
Below is the true significance behind the tiers: historical wPPG for those that fall into these tiers. It also shows where the 117 TEs used to create the model (2017 through 2022 draft classes) fall into place. I used point per reception (PPR) scoring for this. No tight end premium was included.
2025 TE Class: Pre-Draft Tiers and Grades
The reason you’re here…
Conclusion
We already know that Loveland and Warren were drafted in Round 1 last night, but who will be drafted tonight? Elijah Arroyo and Mason Taylor are projected to be TEs 3 and 4, but where will they end up? Let’s enjoy the rest of the 2025 NFL Draft weekend and prepare for our upcoming rookie drafts next week!
Be sure to subscribe below to receive all of my post-NFL Draft Grade directly to your inbox! You won’t want to miss them, as well as the upcoming projections and analytics projects I am working on!